Tensions flare between US and Russia over Georgia

President Mikheil Saakashvili of Georgia launched an abortive and disastrous bid to retake control of South Ossetia last week only to see his country invaded by the Russians and his military crushed. On Aug. 8 Georgian troops tried to take control of the breakaway region of South Ossetia, de facto independent since 1992, by engaging in heavy fighting in the regional capital Tskhinvali. Georgia launched a surprise operation, killing Russian peacekeepers and hundreds of civilians. Russia, officially in South Ossetian territory on a peacekeeping mission, responded by launching an extensive military operation in South Ossetia and further deep into Georgian territory. Abkhazia, another breakaway region in Western Georgia that proclaimed independence in the same year, has taken Russia's side. More than 2,000 people have been reported killed so far and an estimated 100,000 people have fled the fighting. The conflict threatens to drive a deeper wedge in a growing divide between Russia and the West. Although Georgia launched the initial attack on South Ossetia and Russia says it is acting to protect the local population, the United States and Western European countries regard its response as wildly disproportionate. The US and European Union have demanded that any settlement of the conflict in Georgia has to be based on recognition of the small Black Sea country's territorial integrity. But after overrunning Georgia in five days with troops, tanks, and bombers, Russia so far has rejected the terms. The EU unveiled a blueprint for ending the bloodshed in Georgia following several days of French-led shuttle diplomacy between Moscow and Tbilisi that resulted in a six-point plan underpinning a fragile ceasefire. Russia refused to accept those terms, declined to acknowledge Georgian sovereignty over all of its recognized territory, and refused to have any reference to it in the six-point peace plan mediated by the French and agreed by both Moscow and Tbilisi. The Russians and the Georgians agreed to "international discussions" on South Ossetia and Abkhazia, but the Russians kept their options open on the two pro-Russian breakaway provinces. At first, faced with strong western denunciation of the Russian onslaught, President Dmitri Medvedev of Russia called a halt to the Russian offensive and negotiated terms for a truce and a broader settlement with President Nicolas Sarkozy of France, who, as chair of the European Union, rushed to the region to try to strike a deal on a ceasefire. Branding President Mikheil Saakashvili of Georgia a "lunatic," Medvedev outlined tough terms to the French leader, in effect demanding Georgian capitulation to vastly superior Russian forces. "The difference between lunatics and other people is that when they smell blood it is very difficult to stop them," Medvedev said. "So you have to use surgery." The key Russian demands were that the Georgian leader pledges, in an agreement that is signed and legally binding, to abjure all use of force in his country in any attempt to resolve the territorial disputes with the two breakaway pro-Russian provinces of South Ossetia and Abkhazia; and that Georgian forces withdraw entirely from South Ossetia and are no longer part of the joint peacekeeping contingent there with Russian and local Ossetian forces. Medvedev also insisted that the populations of the two breakaway regions had to be allowed to vote on whether they wanted to join Russia, prefiguring a possible annexation by Moscow that would enfeeble and diminish Georgia and leave Saakashvili looking crushed. If Saakashvili balked at the tough terms from Moscow, Sergei Lavrov, the Russian foreign minister, said: "We will be forced to take other measures to prevent any repetition of the situation that emerged because of the outrageous Georgian aggression." Russian leaders are consistently emphasizing that Georgian forces perpetrated atrocities against civilians when Saakashvili gave the go-ahead last week for the bungled attempt to recapture control of South Ossetia. The Georgian gamble was the trigger for the onslaught which the US State Department described as "plain and simple blatant aggression on the part of Russia." The Georgian forces have been part of the peacekeepers in South Ossetia for the past 15 years. But Russian leaders declared that the Georgians would not return to South Ossetia, which would be under Russian control. "They shot their brother Russian peacekeepers, then they finished them off with bayonets, so we are not going to see them there any more," said Dmitri Rogozin, Russia's ambassador to NATO in Brussels. The points agreed by Moscow and Tbilisi on Aug. 12 proscribed the use of force, pledged a ceasefire and guaranteed access for humanitarian aid. But the political and military aspects of the agreement are problematic and within one day both Georgian and Russian officials traded accusations that troops from each side had been acting against the spirit of the peace plan. "Russian occupying forces were continuing movements across Georgia despite the ceasefire," Mikheil Saakashvili, Georgia's president, said early that day as he stood alongside the leaders of other former Soviet states. But General Anatoly Nogovitsyn, Russia's deputy chief of staff of the armed forces, said it was Georgian forces that were violating the ceasefire. "Georgian forces have begun their pullback towards Tbilisi but no active withdrawal has yet been observed," he said. "We are still obliged to fulfill our mission by taking out firing positions, snipers and so on." Lavrov said that a commitment in the peace plan under which Georgian forces would withdraw to "permanent positions" meant they should return to barracks. "Upon the withdrawal of Georgian troops to their barracks, Russian troops will return to the territory of the Russian Federation," Lavrov said. "Our peacekeepers will remain in South Ossetia," he said. Both the South Ossetia and Abkhazia regions have been beyond the Georgian government's control since the early 1990s and the small ethnic wars that followed the collapse of the Soviet Union. The Georgian military intervention sought to thwart Russia's peacekeeping role by internationalizing the conflict and changing the nature of the peacekeeping mission. Saakashvili goaded his western backers "the US, EU and NATO-- for assistance, saying: "The response has not been adequate. It looks like appeasement to me. We need real action, not just words." There have been several conflicting reports over the location of Russian troops in the presently ongoing conflict. Some reports initially described Russian attacks in the city of Gori and of troops advancing on the capital. Subsequent reports have either refuted or reinforced those impressions. Adding to the confusion have been the widely reported, heated and sometimes politically biased assertions of world leaders weighing in on the conflict, possibly for strategic gain. After Russian tanks allegedly pushed beyond the front lines toward Tbilisi on Aug. 13, President Bush demanded that Moscow withdraw its forces from Georgia and announcing that US military aircraft and ships would begin delivering humanitarian aid to the former Soviet republic in a "vigorous and ongoing" operation. Bush's decision, which is likely to require the deployment of US military units to Georgia to support the aid deliveries, potentially puts the United States and Russia on a collision course. The US has already flown Georgian troops deployed in Iraq back home on US Air Force C-17 cargo planes. "The United States stands with the democratically elected government of Georgia and insists that the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Georgia be respected," Bush said in a brief White House appearance with Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice and Defense Secretary Robert Gates. Bush, clearly choosing sides in the dispute, said Rice would soon go to Tbilisi, to "demonstrate our solidarity with the Georgian people." Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin sharply criticized the United States on Aug. 11 for supporting Georgia. He immediately condemned the US for the "transfer, aboard its military transport planes and directly into the conflict zone, of the Georgian military contingent from Iraq," as encouraging Georgia's "aggression." "The very scale of this cynicism is astonishing," Putin said on state television, "the attempt to turn white into black, black into white and to adeptly portray victims of aggression as aggressors and place the responsibility for the consequences of the aggression on the victims." The United States has displayed a "Cold War mentality," Putin charged, supporting "Georgian rulers who used tanks to run over children and the elderly, who threw civilians into cellars and burned them." The Bush announcement came after a day in which Russian tanks took control of access in and out of Gori, a strategically important city well south of South Ossetia, where Russian forces were supposed to be confined. Bush also said that Russian armored and ground forces had blocked access to the country's main port, Poti, and were in the town "blowing up Georgian vessels." Anatoly Nogovitsyn, the deputy head of the Russian General Staff, told a news conference in Moscow that "I can tell you with all responsibility that there are no and cannot be any tanks in Gori." In the valley near Gori, tall plumes of smoke rose from villages. Witnesses said that Russian troops had entered the villages, then allowed South Ossetian militia members to plunder houses there and steal cars. "Our village is burning. They are taking everything out of our houses,""said Dodo Gagnidze, who was standing on the side of the road near Gori. "The Russians said everything was over. Is this what they mean?" Human Rights Watch issued a statement saying that its researchers on Aug. 12 had seen South Ossetian militias burn and loot Georgian villages. The organization quoted a village official in the Gori area saying that at least three villages had been burned. Both South Ossetian officials and officials of Abkhazia said on Aug. 13 that they now plan to pursue full independence from Georgia. "We want complete independence, and nothing else," Dmitry Medoyev, the South Ossetian envoy to Russia, told McClatchy. "We refuse to maintain any relations with Georgia's treacherous and criminal regime." Meanwhile, as thousands rallied in support of Saakashvili outside the parliament building in Tbilisi, there was a growing sense among many Georgians that the leader's decision to attack South Ossetia had been a disastrous mistake -- with Russia's overwhelming military response both predictable and highly costly. "Why are people waving flags? It's not as if we won," Lasha Darkveldze, 23, said as supporters thronged the center of Tbilisi and marched on its freedom square. "Saakashvili should now resign." "We hope he is going to disappear from Georgia," Bacha Janashia, a 24-year-old student said. "I really wonder why he did it. He has only 10,000 soldiers and he takes on Russia." Saakashvili's bargaining position is now extremely weak given the virtual disintegration of his armed forces. Abandoned tanks and armored personnel carriers litter the road between Tbilisi and Gori -- dumped following Russia's swift advance deep into Georgia. The country's radar stations and air defenses have been pulverized and many reservists have gone home. Ossetians and Abkhazians are generally supportive of their leadership and overwhelmingly against reintegration in Georgia, a state they don't see as capable of guaranteeing their security, as was shown by recent referenda. Although there are no official numbers, it is estimated that 70 percent of South Ossetia's 62,000 strong population is Ossetian, the remainder 30 percent being of Georgian ethnicity. The leadership and populations of the secessionist regions also fear the return of hundreds of thousands of Georgian refugees that could re-inflame ethnic tension. Instead, they are increasing their dependence on Russia while rejecting European projects for economic rehabilitation and ethnic reconciliation. South Ossetia rejected an extensive autonomy offer by Georgia in 2005, but this offer came amid Georgian measures against the Ossetian economy and the set-up of competing power structures along with the presence of Georgian security services and paramilitaries. Saakashvili's promises of a successful liberal economy and a western-type democracy did not make Georgia a more attractive state to Abkhazians and Ossetians either, as many Georgians themselves have become disillusioned with the president. Saakashvili is a US-trained attorney who helped oust former Soviet Foreign Minister and Georgian President Eduard Shevardnadze in the so-called Rose Revolution in 2003 and became Europe's youngest president the following January at the age of 36. He has been the Bush administration's poster child for pro-Western movements. He keeps an autographed photograph of himself with Bush in his office and is one of the closest US allies in the region. The United States supplied him with military aid to build his army and he, in turn, sent Georgian troops to Iraq to support the US mission there. Saakashvili's recent claims that Russia's intervention is only aimed at overthrowing him bear resemblance to his justifications for violently repressing massive peaceful protests last November. Charging opposition activists and leaders with conspiracy to overthrow him, and linking opponents to Russian espionage, Saakashvili began to curtail civil liberties, control the press and use state resources in his favor. His victory in the January presidential elections led to accusations of vote rigging, but the results had the approval of the West. Now Saakashvili is complaining that the West has failed to come to his side. "We are receiving only moral and humanitarian help from the international community, but we need more than that," he said in a televised address on Aug. 11. Whether or not Russia wants control of Georgia, it's clear that Russians feel tremendous personal animosity toward Saakashvili, whom they view as a US puppet bent on harming Russian interests. Georgia has strategic significance, in part because of its location on the route of a pipeline that carries oil from the Caspian Sea to the West.