US faces downward spiral in Afghan war - intelligence report

US intelligence agencies believe the war in Afghanistan is in "a downward spiral", sparking an urgent strategy rethink by the Bush administration as it enters its last three months in office, it was reported yesterday. The National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) on Afghanistan, a joint report by America's 16 spy agencies, is not due to be published until after next month's presidential election, but a draft version was leaked to US newspapers calling into question the coherence of US and Nato policy. The document also places considerable blame on Hamid Karzai, the Afghan president, for failing to control corruption in his government. It also points to the destabilizing impact of the booming opium trade, which now accounts for at least half the national economy. The White House has ordered a review of its policy and sent a team to Kabul led by Lieutenant General Douglas Lute, the president's military adviser on Afghanistan, to assess the situation. "We have had a tough summer. There is no doubt about it," a Nato source told the Guardian. "There are concerns, and we would share concerns the NIE has identified for better Afghan governance. We have said for some time the solution is political and not military." The Afghan government has been reported to be holding talks with the Taliban, hosted by Saudi Arabia, but it is unclear whether those contacts would lead to comprehensive peace talks. The Pentagon plans to send another three brigades, up to 14,000 troops, to bolster the 33,000-strong US force there now. The draft NIE on Afghanistan illustrates a darkening mood in western capitals. It follows a leaked French diplomatic dispatch quoting the British ambassador to Kabul, Sherard Cowper-Coles, as saying US strategy there had failed.